Oral diseases could affect more than half of the UK population by 2050

Oral diseases, including tooth decay and gum disease, rank among the world’s most common chronic conditions, affecting an estimated 3.5 billion people. Their scale is troubling not only because they are so prevalent, but also because they may result in severe health consequences.

When left untreated, oral diseases can cause pain, infections and, in some cases, tooth loss. Evidence also indicates that gum disease has a bidirectional relationship with a range of serious conditions, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, Alzheimer's disease, rheumatoid arthritis and cancer.

Oral diseases also create a substantial financial burden: worldwide, they are the fourth most costly category of disease to treat. There are further indirect costs through lost productivity when people are absent from work or school.

Looking after oral health is therefore vital. Yet shortages of NHS dentists, increasing difficulties in obtaining dental care and the UK’s ageing population could result in millions more people developing oral diseases over the coming decades unless these issues are tackled promptly.

My colleagues at the University of Greenwich and Cape Western Reserve University and I have projected what oral health in the UK may look like in future.

Oral health projections for the UK

Using advanced modelling methods, we forecast the prevalence of tooth decay and gum diseases among UK adults between 2020 and 2050. Our findings suggest that, by 2050, more than half of the UK population could be living with some type of dental disease.

We entered information from the UK’s 2009 Adult Dental Health Survey (ADHS) into a simulation model. Complex equations within the model produced projections for tooth decay and gum disease.

Survey participants were first grouped by their oral health status. Each of these groups was then divided into three further categories according to whether a condition was present and how severe it was.

Our projections indicate that the overall proportion of people living with gum disease will rise from 42% of the UK population to 54% by 2050.

The number of people showing indicators of gum disease, including gum pockets and loss of gum tissue, is predicted to grow from 25.7 million in 2020 to 28 million in 2050. Those with gum tissue loss specifically are expected to increase from 18.7 million in 2020 to almost 21 million by 2050.

Tooth decay is set to affect more older adults

The forecast is moderately encouraging for adults who will be aged 16 to 59 in 2050. The number experiencing tooth decay is expected to fall marginally, from 15.7 million in 2020 to 15.5 million in 2050, representing a 1.5% reduction.

However, the prospect is less favourable for people aged 60 and above in 2050. The number of over-60s with tooth decay is forecast to almost double, rising from 5 million in 2020 to 9.6 million in 2050.

Taken together, these results suggest that the burden of tooth decay and gum diseases will move away from younger adults aged 16–59 and towards older adults. They underline the need for people now in their 30s and 40s to receive good dental care both today and as they grow older.

Because the model was based on population data from the 2009 ADHS, one limitation is that it assumes dental disease prevalence rates do not change over time.

Future research will need to examine more up-to-date survey information to provide a more precise forecast of the UK’s oral health future.

Improving oral health

Our study did not explore the reasons the future oral health picture appears so concerning. However, several factors are known to contribute to poor dental health, including inadequate oral hygiene, such as failing to brush twice a day or smoking, limited access to dental care and lower socioeconomic status.

Reports suggest that the pandemic has worsened existing problems in accessing dental services across the UK. Unless action is taken quickly, the outlook for British adults’ oral health is bleak.

The new Labour government has an important chance to plan proactively, rather than reactively, for future oral health requirements. This involves establishing more services now to support the needs of an ageing population.

If these difficulties are not dealt with swiftly, oral health outcomes could become even worse than the projections suggest.

Possible proactive steps include incorporating oral healthcare into general medical care and prioritising prevention. This could involve improving access to high-quality dental services, strengthening early screening programmes and ensuring dental problems receive timely treatment.

Funding oral hygiene education programmes could improve oral health literacy from an early age. Water fluoridation also continues to be essential for preventing tooth decay.

At an individual level, there are many ways to protect oral health, including brushing twice daily, flossing, cutting down sugar consumption, stopping smoking and limiting alcohol intake.

Where possible, aim to visit your dentist regularly for a check-up, ideally at least once every two years if you have no concerns. If you notice any change to your oral health, arrange an appointment as soon as you can.

Amal Elamin, Senior Lecturer in Public Health, University of Greenwich

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons licence. Read the original article.